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California Fray Offering G.O.P. Hope and Peril Although most top Republicans were latecomers to the recall effort, many of them now believe that the move to oust the unpopular governor, a Democrat, gives them a chance to reverse a decade of ill fortune that peaked in November with the first Democratic sweep of statewide offices in 120 years. To reverse its fortunes, though, the party will need to navigate a series of potential perils, keeping Republicans from fighting among themselves for Mr. Davis's job and preventing Democrats from demonizing the party as trying to hijack the democratic process. Representative Dana Rohrabacher, an Orange County Republican, who would have preferred to wait until the 2004 legislative elections to take on the Democrats, said cautiously: "Is this a golden egg or a hot potato for the Republicans? The answer is yes." The consequences could go beyond California, with some Republicans fearing that the recall could backfire and end any chance that President Bush could win the state next year. Still, the doubts are outweighed by the party's energy and determination. Not since Pete Wilson won re-election as governor in 1994 have California Republicans had much cause to celebrate. But the possibility of compelling a vote on Mr. Davis's fate as early as this fall has many of the Republican faithful emerging from a political funk that analysts had predicted would take years to overcome. "The recall has changed things so significantly over such a short period of time that we have to look at our 2003 and 2004 goals, not just our 2006 goals," said George M. Sundheim III, who became chairman of the state Republican Party in February, promising to make it competitive by expanding its base, enlisting volunteers and quelling the infighting. "It has accelerated the process." Republican voter registration drives have moved into high gear. Conservative talk radio is filled with excited conjecture about possible Republican successors to Mr. Davis. Hollywood is abuzz over the possible political ambitions of the actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican. And for the first time in years, the conservative and moderate wings of the state party are so focused on winning that they are rarely at each other's throats publicly. "The recall has been a huge shot in the arm for California Republicans," said Tony Quinn, a veteran political analyst and an editor at California Target Book, a nonpartisan survey of elections in the state. "It has motivated their voters." Still, the effort to remove Mr. Davis — started early this year by a small group of conservatives and more recently financed by Representative Darrell Issa, a millionaire Republican from San Diego — could hold dangers for the party. The White House, for example, has worried that even if the Republicans win back the governorship they might then be blamed for the state's crippling budget problems, which are the main source of Mr. Davis's unpopularity. If the Republicans lose, there are also problems for the White House, some Republican officials said, because it could be harder to rally disappointed voters so quickly around the president's 2004 re-election campaign. A poll this week by the Field Research Corporation showed that Mr. Bush's job approval rating in California had dropped to 49 percent, its lowest since before the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
Mr. Bush learned first hand last year how volatile Republican politics in California can be. The White House openly encouraged Richard J. Riordan, the former Los Angeles mayor, to seek the party's
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